Retention curves are the single most predictive signal of long-term business value, but "good retention" is meaningless without a vertical. This card consolidates 2026 cohort retention benchmarks across B2B SaaS (SMB, mid-market, enterprise), consumer mobile (gaming, fintech, ecommerce, social, health), consumer subscription (streaming, media), marketplaces (buyer and seller side), and fintech (neobanks). Each vertical uses different time horizons and units — SaaS measures dollar retention over 12 months; mobile measures user activity at D1/D7/D30; marketplaces measure GMV retention by cohort month. [src1, src2, src4]
Data vintage: H2 2025 through Q1 2026. Aggregated from 8 primary benchmark reports covering ~100K+ apps, ~2,500 subscription businesses, and ~940 B2B SaaS companies.
Key shift: SMB SaaS NRR crossed below 100% at median for the first time since 2019 as expansion stalled [src1]. Consumer subscription monthly churn rose to 5.5% (from 2% in 2019) driven by streaming fatigue [src6]. Mobile D30 retention compressed 10–15% across ecommerce, health, and education categories as CAC-driven installs saturated [src2].
Definition: (Starting ARR + expansion − contraction − churn) / starting ARR, measured over 12 months for customers who existed at period start. Excludes new logos.
| Segment | Median | 25th Pct | 75th Pct | Top Decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMB SaaS (ACV <$15K) | 97% | 88% | 103% | 108% |
| Mid-Market SaaS ($15K–$100K) | 104% | 96% | 112% | 120% |
| Enterprise SaaS (>$100K) | 112% | 103% | 122% | 135% |
| Infra / DevTools SaaS | 118% | 108% | 128% | 140%+ |
| PLG / Self-Serve SaaS | 106% | 95% | 118% | 128% |
Trend: SMB NRR compressed 4–6 points YoY in 2025 as expansion stalled and seat-based contraction accelerated. Enterprise and DevTools held steady. Top-decile performers (Snowflake, Datadog tier) still clearing 130%+.
Red flag threshold: SMB NRR <90% = revenue base contracting. Enterprise NRR <100% = churn exceeds expansion, investigate urgently.
Definition: (Starting ARR − contraction − churn) / starting ARR. Excludes expansion. Pure survival measurement.
| Segment | Median | Healthy Range | Alarm Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMB SaaS | 82% | 80–90% | <75% |
| Mid-Market SaaS | 90% | 88–94% | <85% |
| Enterprise SaaS | 94% | 92–97% | <90% |
| Infra / DevTools SaaS | 93% | 90–96% | <88% |
Red flag threshold: GRR gap from NRR >25 percentage points = company is masking real churn with expansion; dangerous at scale.
Definition: Percentage of users from install cohort active on exactly day N. Median across 2025 cohorts.
| Vertical | D1 (Median) | D7 (Median) | D30 (Median) | D30 Top Quartile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile Gaming | 31% | 14% | 7% | 14% |
| Fintech (Neobank / Payments) | 27% | 17% | 11% | 22% |
| Social / Messaging | 27% | 10% | 5% | 12% |
| E-commerce / Retail | 22% | 11% | 5% | 10% |
| Health & Fitness | 24% | 7% | 3% | 8% |
| Education / Learning | 21% | 8% | 3% | 9% |
| Productivity / Utility | 28% | 13% | 8% | 16% |
| Media & Entertainment | 25% | 11% | 6% | 13% |
Platform delta: iOS runs ~3pp higher than Android across categories (e.g., iOS D1 27% vs Android D1 24%; iOS D30 8% vs Android D30 6%).
Red flag threshold: D30 below 3% for any category except pure-media apps indicates severe onboarding or product-market fit problems.
Definition: Same cohort still active at 90 days (3 months) and 365 days (1 year) after install.
| Vertical | D90 (Median) | D365 (Median) | D365 Top Decile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile Gaming | 3% | <1% | 3% |
| Fintech (Neobank) | 8% | 4% | 12% |
| Social / Messaging | 3% | 1.5% | 8% |
| E-commerce / Retail | 3% | 1% | 5% |
| Health & Fitness | 2% | <1% | 4% |
| Productivity / Utility | 6% | 3% | 10% |
"Smile curve" note: Best-in-class consumer apps show D365 stabilize or rise vs D90 (resurrection + power-user concentration). Losing 80% of users by D30 is normal; the question is what the flat tail looks like.
Definition: Subscribers who cancel in month M / subscribers active at start of month M. Excludes involuntary churn (payment failure) unless labeled.
| Category | Median Monthly Churn | Best-in-Class | Alarm Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Audio Streaming (Spotify-tier) | 1.5% | <1% (Spotify ~0.9%) | >3% |
| Video Streaming (Netflix-tier) | 2.5% | ~2% (Netflix 1.8–2.0%) | >5% |
| Video Streaming (Mid-tier) | 5.5% | 3.5% | >8% |
| News / Digital Media Subscriptions | 4% | 2% | >7% |
| Subscription Box (Physical) | 8% | 5% | >12% |
| Niche Consumer (Duolingo, Calm) | 3% | 1.5% | >6% |
Annualized: Audio ~12% annual churn; video ~40% annual across mid-tier, ~22% for Netflix-tier; subscription boxes ~60%+ annual.
Trend: Overall consumer subscription monthly churn rose from 2% (2019) to 5.5% (2025). 23% of streaming subscribers are "serial churners" rotating between services.
Definition: Former subscribers who return within N months of canceling.
| Category | 6-Month Win-Back | 12-Month Win-Back |
|---|---|---|
| Video Streaming (Netflix reference) | 50% | 61% |
| Audio Streaming | 30% | 42% |
| News / Digital Media | 20% | 28% |
| Subscription Box | 15% | 22% |
Definition: For a monthly cohort of buyers, sum of GMV they transact in month M+N / GMV they transacted in month 0. Tracks whether buyers come back and spend more (or less).
| Month | a16z Median | Top Quartile | Great Marketplace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | 66% | 75% | 85%+ |
| Month 3 | 57% | 68% | 80%+ |
| Month 6 | 50% | 62% | 75%+ |
| Month 12 | 30% | 45% | 60%+ (smile curve) |
| Month 24 | 22% | 38% | 60%+ (flat or rising) |
Curve shape matters more than level: Great marketplaces exhibit a "smile" — retention dips through month 6–9 then rises as power buyers concentrate. Merely-OK marketplaces show monotonic decay.
Definition: Sellers active in month M+N / sellers active in month 0 (same cohort).
| Month | Median | Top Quartile |
|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | 75% | 85% |
| Month 3 | 65% | 78% |
| Month 6 | 55% | 70% |
| Month 12 | 38% | 55% |
Note: Supply retention typically runs 5–15pp higher than demand retention because sellers invest in onboarding (listings, brand, tooling).
Definition: Users who signed up for a neobank and have at least one active transaction in the given month.
| Month | Median | Top Quartile |
|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | 62% | 78% |
| Month 3 | 45% | 65% |
| Month 6 | 32% | 52% |
| Month 12 | 22% | 42% |
Key behavior: Primary-account neobanks (where user deposits salary) retain 3–5x better than secondary/experimentation accounts. Direct-deposit activation is the leading indicator of Month-12 retention.
Red flag threshold: Month-6 retention <25% = users treating account as trial; acquisition spend likely unrecoverable.
| Rule | Formula / Threshold | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Quick Ratio (SaaS) | (New MRR + Expansion) / (Churn + Contraction) ≥ 4 | Healthy growth engine — adding $4 for every $1 lost |
| NRR − GRR Spread | NRR minus GRR, compared to 20pp | Gap >25pp = expansion masking churn; gap <10pp = under-monetizing existing customers |
| Andrew Chen 80/20 | ~80% of mobile users churn by D30 even for great apps | Focus on the flat tail (D30+) — that's where LTV lives |
| Marketplace Smile Test | Month-12 demand retention > Month-6 demand retention | Indicates power-user concentration and genuine habituation |
| Streaming Annual Churn Ceiling | Monthly × 12 × 0.9 (compounding) | Monthly churn ≤ annual churn / 10 for a healthy service |
| Fintech Direct-Deposit Lift | Direct-deposit users retain 3–5x primary baseline | If <20% of accounts have direct deposit by M3, value prop is weak |
Constraint: Rules of thumb break down for early-stage companies (<1K monthly cohort) and for products with long natural purchase cycles (tax software, wedding apps).
| Segment | Definition | Typical Characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| SMB SaaS | ACV <$15K, <100-employee buyer, self-serve or inside-sales motion | Higher churn (10–15%/yr), fast sales cycles, seat-based contraction risk |
| Mid-Market SaaS | ACV $15K–$100K, 100–1,000-employee buyer | Hybrid motion, 5–10%/yr churn, meaningful expansion possible |
| Enterprise SaaS | ACV >$100K, >1,000-employee buyer, field sales | <5%/yr logo churn, heavy expansion, multi-year contracts |
| Consumer Mobile App | App-store distributed, cohort measured n-days post-install | Steep D1–D30 curve; retention economics depend on monetization mix |
| Consumer Subscription | Direct-bill monthly/annual, non-app primary channel | Lower D1 churn but higher annual churn via cancel events |
| Marketplace (Buyer) | Buyer cohort tracked by GMV retention — dollars spent, not just sessions | Smile curves indicate PMF; decay curves indicate transactional |
| Marketplace (Seller) | Seller cohort tracked by GMV generated or listings active | Usually 5–15pp higher than buyer retention due to switching cost |
| Fintech Neobank | Checking/deposit account with active transactions in month | Direct deposit is leading retention indicator |
| Fintech Payments App | P2P or bill-pay app with ≥1 transaction in month | Habit-loop driven; Month-3 retention most predictive |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMB SaaS NRR (median) | 103% | 100% | 97% | ↓ 3pp (expansion compression) |
| Enterprise SaaS NRR (median) | 113% | 112% | 112% | → Stable |
| Consumer Mobile D30 (aggregate) | 8% | 7.5% | 7% | ↓ 0.5–1pp (CAC saturation) |
| Streaming Video Monthly Churn (mid-tier) | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | ↑ 0.5pp (fatigue) |
| Marketplace M12 Demand Retention | 32% | 31% | 30% | → Roughly stable |
| Neobank M12 Retention (median) | 20% | 21% | 22% | ↑ (growth-to-profitability refocus) |
Fetch this card when an agent is benchmarking retention for a specific vertical, validating a financial model's retention assumptions, diagnosing whether a company's cohort curves are healthy, or setting KPI targets that reference industry norms. Especially relevant during board prep, diligence, or strategy reviews where cross-vertical comparisons come up.