US Interconnection Queue Status (2026)
What is the current state of US electricity interconnection queues?
Summary
The US interconnection queue remains the primary bottleneck in energy transition deployment. As of end 2024, approximately 2,300 GW of generation and storage capacity (~10,300 projects) sits in interconnection queues — down 12% from the prior year's ~2,600 GW peak, driven by historic withdrawal rates and fewer new requests. [src4] Despite this decline, the queue still far exceeds total installed US generation capacity. The median wait time from interconnection request to commercial operation has doubled from under 2 years (2000-2007) to over 4 years (2018-2024). [src4, src1]
A notable shift in 2024: natural gas capacity in the queue surged 72% year-over-year, while solar, storage, and wind capacity all declined. [src4] FERC Order 2023 reforms are now being implemented across ISOs, with cluster-based study processes replacing serial queues. [src2, src5]
Key Facts
- Queue depth: ~2,300 GW total (1,400 GW generation + 890 GW storage), down 12% YoY [src4]
- Projects: ~10,300 actively seeking interconnection as of end 2024 [src4]
- Completion rate: Only ~13% of capacity entering the queue (2000-2019) reached commercial operation [src4]
- Withdrawal rate: 77% of historical queue capacity was withdrawn [src4]
- Median timeline: Over 4 years from request to operation; was under 2 years for projects built 2000-2007 [src4]
- Agreements pending: 408 GW has draft or executed interconnection agreements but has not yet reached commercial operations [src4]
- Proposed COD: 49% of total queue capacity (1,271 GW) targets commercial operation by end 2026 [src4]
- Technology mix (end 2024): Solar 956 GW (-12% YoY), Storage 890 GW (-13% YoY), Wind 271 GW (-26% YoY), Natural gas 136 GW (+72% YoY) [src4]
- Cost: Interconnection study costs alone range $50K-$2M+ depending on size and complexity [src3]
Regulatory Context
FERC Order 2023 (issued July 2023, effective 2024) introduced cluster-based study processes, financial readiness requirements, and defined deadlines to reduce speculative applications and speed up interconnection studies. [src2] FERC Order 2023-A (issued March 2024) made minor clarifications but preserved the core reform framework. [src5]
Regional implementation progress (2025):
- PJM completed Transition Cycle 1 (September 2025): 130 requests representing ~17.4 GW (56% solar, 25% wind, 10% storage, 5% hybrid, 3% gas). Transition Cycle 2 (~46 GW) expected to complete by end of 2026. [src7]
- SPP cleared its entire legacy backlog dating back to 2018 by September 2025, transitioning to its Consolidated Planning Process. [src4]
- ISO New England's compliance was accepted by FERC in April 2025, with transitional cluster studies beginning late 2025. [src5]
Data center / large load demand (new pressure):
- DOE issued a Section 403 directive (October 2025) requiring FERC to establish rulemaking for large load interconnections (>20 MW), with a final rule deadline of April 30, 2026. [src6]
- ERCOT alone reported 226 GW of large load customers (77% data centers) in its queue as of November 2025 — a 258% increase from 63 GW at end of 2024. [src6]
Causal Factors
- Speculative applications: Low barriers to entry led to queue flooding — 77% of historical capacity was eventually withdrawn [src4, src2]
- Transmission capacity: Insufficient grid buildout to absorb new generation [src3]
- Study process: Serial study approach created cascading delays when projects withdrew [src2]
- Workforce: Insufficient engineering staff at utilities and ISOs to process studies [src3]
- Interconnection cost uncertainty: Study cost escalation deters smaller developers [src3]
- Data center demand: Surging AI/data center power needs adding massive new load interconnection requests — ERCOT's large load queue grew 258% in one year [src6]
Decision Logic
If stakeholder is a solar or wind developer
→ Expect 4+ year timelines from application to operation. Budget for interconnection study costs of $50K-$2M+ and be prepared for potential cost escalation during the study process. Focus on areas with available transmission capacity. [src4, src3]
If stakeholder is a storage developer
→ Storage represents ~890 GW in queue (39% of total capacity). Co-location with generation projects may provide faster interconnection paths. [src4]
If stakeholder is evaluating natural gas projects
→ Natural gas queue capacity surged 72% YoY in 2024, reflecting growing data center and AI power demand. Competition for gas interconnection slots is increasing. [src4]
If planning horizon is near-term (1-2 years)
→ Only projects with executed interconnection agreements (408 GW pool) are likely to reach operation. New applications filed today face 4+ year timelines. [src4]
If planning horizon is long-term (5+ years)
→ FERC Order 2023 cluster reforms should reduce speculative applications and improve study processing times by 2027+. Transmission buildout remains the binding long-term constraint. [src2, src5, src3]
If evaluating investment in queued projects
→ Only 13% of historical queue capacity reached operation; 77% was withdrawn. Prioritize projects that already have interconnection agreements — 408 GW of capacity is in this "near-ready" pool. [src4]
Trend Direction
Mixed but cautiously improving. The 12% YoY decline in queue volume is a positive signal, though driven partly by withdrawals rather than completions. [src4]
- FERC Order 2023 cluster reforms expected to reduce new speculative applications (2025-2026) [src2, src5]
- Legacy backlog remains severe through ~2027 [src3]
- Natural gas interconnection demand rising due to AI/data center load growth [src4]
- Transmission buildout is the binding constraint long-term [src3]
Important Caveats
- Queue capacity ≠ built capacity: Most proposed projects will never be built (77% historical withdrawal rate) [src4]
- Regional variation: Queue conditions vary dramatically by ISO/RTO — national averages mask local extremes [src1]
- Study cost data is approximate and varies widely by project size, location, and grid conditions [src3]
- FERC Order 2023 implementation is ongoing; full impact on processing times will not be measurable until ~2027