This recipe produces a validated go/pivot/stop decision for a startup idea — backed by 15-25 problem interviews, solution willingness-to-pay data, and behavioral MVP experiment results — within 3-6 weeks at $0-$2,000. It outputs a structured interview synthesis, customer segment ranking, and conversion metrics that feed directly into MVP scoping and launch planning. [src1]
Which path?
├── User is non-technical AND budget = $0
│ └── PATH A: Free Manual — Calendly + Google Meet + Google Sheets + Carrd Free
├── User is non-technical AND budget > $0
│ └── PATH B: No-Code Paid — Calendly + Zoom + Webflow + Stripe + PostHog
├── User is semi-technical AND budget = $0
│ └── PATH C: Semi-Tech Free — Cal.com + Google Meet + Carrd + PostHog Free
└── User is developer AND budget > $0
└── PATH D: Full Stack — Calendly + Zoom + Custom LP + Stripe + PostHog| Path | Tools | Cost | Speed | Output Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: Free Manual | Calendly, Meet, Sheets, Carrd | $0 | 4-6 weeks | Good — all phases covered |
| B: No-Code Paid | Calendly, Zoom, Webflow, Stripe, PostHog | $100-$500 | 3-5 weeks | High — professional LP + payment test |
| C: Semi-Tech Free | Cal.com, Meet, Carrd, PostHog | $0 | 3-5 weeks | Good — open-source + analytics |
| D: Full Stack | Calendly, Zoom, custom LP, Stripe, PostHog | $200-$2K | 3-4 weeks | Excellent — custom MVP + full analytics |
Duration: 2-4 hours · Tool: Google Sheets or Notion
Write 5-10 core assumptions about the business. Rank by risk — which ones, if wrong, kill the idea? Convert top 5 into testable hypotheses with explicit pass/fail criteria. Plot on Strategyzer's evidence-impact matrix: high-impact + low-evidence assumptions get tested first. [src3]
Hypothesis template:
"We believe [customer segment] has [problem] at [frequency].
We'll know this is true when [X] of [Y] interviewees confirm [specific behavior]."Verify: 5+ hypotheses documented with pass/fail thresholds · If failed: Spend 2 hours on competitor research and community lurking first
Duration: 3-5 days · Tool: LinkedIn, Slack/Discord, Reddit
Identify 30-50 people matching the target customer profile. Send short outreach: "I'm researching [topic] and would love 20 minutes of your time." Offer $25-$50 gift cards for B2B (improves response rates from 10% to 25%). Target: schedule 15-25 interviews within 5 days. [src1]
Verify: 15+ interviews scheduled within 7 days · If failed: Broaden profile or use paid platforms (Respondent.io, $50-$100/participant) [src5]
Duration: 1-2 weeks · Tool: Zoom/Google Meet, Google Sheets
Use Mom Test methodology: listen 80%, talk 20%. Never pitch, never lead. Record with consent. Track pain intensity (1-10), frequency, current solutions, money spent. After each batch of 5, update the assumption map. After 15 interviews, synthesize into pain point ranking and segment map. [src7]
Core questions (30 min):
1. "What's the hardest part about [domain]?"
2. "Tell me about the last time you dealt with [problem]"
3. "What have you tried to solve it?"
4. "How much time/money do you spend on this?"
5. "If you could wave a magic wand, what would change?"Verify: 10+ confirm same pain; pain intensity 7+/10; weekly+ frequency · If failed: Narrow segment and recruit 10 more; if no pattern after 25 interviews, pivot or stop
Duration: 1-2 weeks · Tool: Figma (mockup), Zoom, Sheets
Design solution for #1 validated pain point. Create visual representation. Define 2-3 pricing tiers (anchor high). Present problem back first, then show solution and push for commitment. [src6]
Strong signals (behavioral): Weak signals (verbal):
- Puts down a deposit - "That sounds cool"
- Pre-orders or pre-pays - "I'd definitely use that"
- Detailed feature request - "Send me more info"
- Introduces to decision-maker - "Keep me posted"Verify: 30%+ concrete WTP; 5+ beta commits; clear positioning wedge · If failed: Test different pricing or value framing; if <20% interest, redesign solution [src5]
Duration: 3-7 days build + 1-2 weeks run · Tool: Carrd/Webflow, Stripe, PostHog
Choose experiment type: landing page (demand), pre-sale page (WTP), concierge MVP (service), fake door (feature interest), or Wizard of Oz (full workflow). Build in 1-3 days. Drive 200-500 targeted visitors from communities, outreach, or paid ads ($5-$10/day). [src4]
Experiment selection:
├── Test demand broadly? → Landing page + email signup
├── Test willingness to pay? → Pre-sale page with Stripe
├── Test service delivery? → Concierge MVP (3-5 customers)
├── Test feature interest? → Fake door test (click tracking)
└── Test full workflow? → Wizard of Oz (manual backend)Verify: 200+ visitors within 7-14 days; analytics tracking · If failed: Invest $50-$100 in targeted ads; switch landing page tool if needed [src1]
Duration: 2-3 days · Tool: Google Sheets, PostHog
Calculate conversion metrics against benchmarks. Cross-reference with qualitative data. Combine all evidence into a single decision. Do not cherry-pick positive signals. [src2]
| Signal | Stop | Pivot | Go |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pain score | <5/10 | 5-7/10 | 7+/10 |
| Pattern clarity | No pattern | Emerging | 10+ same |
| Solution WTP rate | <10% | 10-30% | >30% |
| Beta pre-commitments | 0-1 | 2-4 | 5+ |
| LP email conversion | <2% | 2-5% | >5% |
| Pre-sale orders | 0 | 1-2 | 3+ |
Verify: Decision document with evidence from all phases; channel ranked by conversion · If failed: If ambiguous after 6 weeks, treat as "stop" — ambiguity means the signal is too weak [src3]
{
"output_type": "validation_decision_package",
"format": "document collection",
"columns": [
{"name": "decision", "type": "string", "description": "Go, Pivot, or Stop with reasoning"},
{"name": "problem_validated", "type": "boolean", "description": "Whether interviews confirmed pain"},
{"name": "top_pain_point", "type": "string", "description": "Highest-ranked pain from synthesis"},
{"name": "target_segment", "type": "string", "description": "Best-fit customer segment"},
{"name": "wtp_rate", "type": "number", "description": "Willingness-to-pay rate"},
{"name": "mvp_conversion_rate", "type": "number", "description": "LP or pre-sale conversion"},
{"name": "best_channel", "type": "string", "description": "Best acquisition channel tested"},
{"name": "interviews_completed", "type": "number", "description": "Total interviews conducted"},
{"name": "pre_commitments", "type": "number", "description": "Deposits or pre-orders collected"}
]
}| Quality Metric | Minimum Acceptable | Good | Excellent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Problem interviews completed | 15 | 20 | 25+ |
| Problem pattern clarity | 3+ same pain | 7+ same pain | 10+ unprompted |
| Willingness-to-pay rate | >20% | >30% | >50% |
| Beta pre-commitments | 3 | 5-10 | 10+ |
| LP email conversion | >3% | >5% | >10% |
| Pre-sale conversion | 1 order | 3+ orders | 10+ orders |
| Data completeness | >70% fields | >85% fields | >95% fields |
If below minimum: Re-run Steps 2-3 with broader customer segment. Do not skip to MVP testing with fewer than 15 interviews. [src5]
| Error | Likely Cause | Recovery Action |
|---|---|---|
| Cannot recruit 15 interviewees in 7 days | Target audience too narrow or hard to reach | Broaden profile; try Respondent.io ($50-$100/participant); post in 3+ communities |
| All interviewees polite but describe no pain | Problem hypothesis is wrong | Ask "what IS painful?" and let them lead; update hypothesis |
| High interest but zero pre-commitments | Solution doesn't justify switching cost | Test 10x lower price or freemium; test different segment |
| LP <2% conversion after 500+ visitors | Value prop or messaging mismatch | A/B test headline and CTA; try different audience |
| Zero traffic to landing page | Wrong distribution channels | Add $50 paid ads; try different communities; cold outreach |
| Stripe setup or payment errors | Configuration issue | Test in Stripe test mode first; use LemonSqueezy as fallback |
| Analytics not tracking | PostHog snippet not firing | Check console for errors; verify script placement; use Clarity as backup |
| Component | Free ($0) | Lean ($500) | Standard ($2K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interview incentives | $0 | $200 | $500 |
| Design/mockup tools | $0 (Figma free) | $0 | $50 |
| Landing page | $0 (Carrd free) | $16 (Carrd Pro) | $50 (Webflow) |
| Paid traffic testing | $0 | $100 | $500 |
| Analytics | $0 (PostHog) | $0 | $50 |
| User research platform | $0 | $100 | $500 |
| Contingency | $0 | $84 | $350 |
| Total | $0 | $500 | $2,000 |
Constraint: Spending more than $2,000 on validation means you crossed into product development. [src1]
Friends optimize for preserving the relationship, not honest feedback. Interview strangers who match your target profile. [src7]
Ask "Tell me about the last time you dealt with [problem]." If they show workarounds they built, the signal is real. [src5]
42% of failed startups cite "no market need." Building first means you cannot pivot without losing months. [src4]
$0-$2,000 validation is the cheapest insurance in entrepreneurship. [src1]
60-80% of stated purchase intent never converts. Polite enthusiasm is not a signal. [src4]
Commitment ladder: time (interview) → social (introduction) → financial (deposit). Each phase demands a stronger signal. [src3]
Use when a founder or agent needs to execute a structured idea validation — run the interviews, build the landing page, collect the data, and make the decision. Requires a problem hypothesis as input; produces a validated go/pivot/stop decision as output.